COMBINAÇÃO LINEAR WAVELET SARIMA-RNA COM ESTÁGIOS MULTIPLOS NA PREVISÃO DE SÉRIES TEMPORAIS

In this paper, we put forward a hybrid methodology for combining forecasts to (stochastic) time series referred to as Wavelet Linear Combination (WLC) SARIMA-RNA with Multiple Stages. Firstly, the wavelet decomposition of level p is performed, generating (approximations of the) p+1 wavelet components (WCs). Then, the WCs are individually modeled by means of a Box and Jenkins’ model and an artificial neural network - in order to capture, respectively, plausible linear and non-linear structures of autodependence - for, then, being linearly combined, providing hybrid forecasts for each one. Finally, all of them are linearly combined by the WLC of forecasts (to be defined). For evaluating it, we used the Box and Jenkins’ (BJ) models, artificial neural networks (ANN), and its traditional Linear Combination (LC1) of forecasts; and ANN integrated with the wavelet decomposition (ANNWAVELET), BJ model integrated with the wavelet decomposition (BJ-WAVELET), and its conventional Linear Combination (LC2) of forecasts. All predictive methods applied to the monthly time series of average flow of tributaries of the Itaipu Dam dam, located in Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil. In all analysis, the proposed hybrid methodology has provided higher predictive performance than the other ones

Níveis de Proteína e Energia para Codornas Japonesas em Postura

O experimento foi conduzido com o objetivo de determinar os níveis de proteína e energia, para codornas japonesas (Coturnix coturnix japonica) em postura, em quatro períodos experimentais, de 28 dias cada. Foram utilizadas 600 codornas fêmeas, com idade de 45 dias e peso médio de 138,0 g. O delineamento experimental utilizado foi o de blocos ao acaso, em um esquema fatorial 3x5, com três níveis de energia (2.850, 2.950 e 3.050 kcal de EM/kg) e cinco níveis de proteína (16, 18, 20, 22 e 24% de PB), com quatro repetições de 10 animais cada. As variáveis estudadas foram: postura (%), peso do ovo (g), massa de ovo (g de ovos/codorna/dia), consumo alimentar (g), conversão alimentar (g de ração/g de ovos e g de ração/dz de ovos), peso final (g), porcentagem da casca do ovo (%), e nível de ácido úrico no soro sangüíneo (mg/dl). As respostas de desempenho das codornas em postura, respeitando o ajuste estatístico obtido por meio dos modelos de regressão quadrática e linear, e a interpretação biológica, permitem concluir que para se obter a melhor performace produtiva, as rações das codornas devem conter os níveis de 2.850 kcal de EM/ kg de ração e 22,42% de PB, correspondendo a um consumo de 6,02g de proteína por ave/dia

ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK AND WAVELET DECOMPOSITION IN THE FORECAST OF GLOBAL HORIZONTAL SOLAR RADIATION

This paper proposes a method (denoted by WD-ANN) that combines the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and the Wavelet Decomposition (WD) to generate short-term global horizontal solar radiation forecasting, which is an essential information for evaluating the electrical power generated from the conversion of solar energy into electrical energy. The WD-ANN method consists of two basic steps: firstly, it is performed the decomposition of level p of the time series of interest, generating p + 1 wavelet orthonormal components; secondly, the p + 1 wavelet orthonormal components (generated in the step 1) are inserted simultaneously into an ANN in order to generate short-term forecasting. The results showed that the proposed method (WD-ANN) improved substantially the performance over the (traditional) ANN method

Metabolizable energy and digestible amino acids of full-fat soybean without or with protease supplementation in diets for broilers

Two experiments were carried out to determine the energy values ​​and the true ileal digestibility of amino acids of nine toasted full-fat soybeans (FFSB), without or with the addition of monocomponent protease. In the first experiment, to determine the energy values, the method of excreta collection was used with 1120 broiler chicks at 14 days old, distributed in randomized blocks in a 10x2 factorial arrangement with nine full-fat soybeans (30% included) plus a control diet (70%) without or with the addition of protease, totaling 20 treatments with 8 replicates and 7 birds per cage. In the second experiment, 1120 broiler chickens from 24 to 28 days of age were distributed in randomized blocks in a 10x2 factor arrangement, with nine full-fat soybeans (40% included) + a protein free diet (60%), without or with the addition of protease, totaling 20 treatments with 8 replicates and 7 birds per cage. Ileal digesta collection was used to determine the true digestibility coefficients and the digestible amino acid content of full-fat soybean. The average values ​​of nitrogen-corrected apparent metabolizable energy (AMEn) and their respective metabolization coefficients (CAMEn) were 3207 kcal/kg and 62.57%, respectively. The average values ​​of digestibility coefficients of crude protein and essential and nonessential amino acids were 86.79, 87.90 and 84.34%, respectively. The inclusion of protease improved (P<0.05) all evaluated parameters. Therefore, its use is recommended in diets containing full-fat soybeans for broiler chickens.Foram realizados dois experimentos para determinar os valores energéticos e os coeficientes de digestibilidade ileal verdadeiros de aminoácidos de nove sojas integrais tostadas, sem ou com a adição de protease monocomponente. No primeiro experimento, para a determinação dos valores energéticos, foi utilizado o método de coleta total de excretas, com 1120 pintos de corte com 14 dias de idade, distribuídos em blocos casualizados, em arranjo fatorial 10x2, com nove sojas integrais (30% de inclusão) + uma ração referência (70%), sem ou com adição de protease, totalizando 20 tratamentos, com 8 repetições e 7 aves por gaiola. No segundo experimento foram utilizados 1120 frangos dos 24 aos 28 dias de idade, distribuídos em blocos casualizados, em arranjo fatorial 10x2, com nove sojas integrais (40% de inclusão) + uma ração isenta de proteína (60%), sem ou com adição de protease, totalizando 20 tratamentos, com 8 repetições e 7 aves por gaiola. A coleta da digesta ileal foi utilizada para determinar os coeficientes de digestibilidade verdadeiros e o teor de aminoácidos digestíveis da soja integral. Os valores médios de energia metabolizável aparente corrigida para balanço de nitrogênio (EMAn) e o seu respectivo coeficiente de metabolizabilidade (CEMAn) foram de 3207 kcal/kg e 62,57%, respectivamente. Os valores médios dos coeficientes de digestibilidade da proteína bruta e dos aminoácidos, essenciais e não essenciais foram de 86,79, 87,90 e 84,34%, respectivamente. A inclusão de protease melhorou (P<0,05) todos os parâmetros avaliados. Portanto, recomenda-se sua utilização em rações formuladas com soja integral para frangos de corte

Metabolizable energy and digestible amino acids of full-fat soybean without or with protease supplementation in diets for broilers

ABSTRACT Two experiments were carried out to determine the energy values and the true ileal digestibility of amino acids of nine toasted full-fat soybeans (FFSB), without or with the addition of monocomponent protease. In the first experiment, to determine the energy values, the method of excreta collection was used with 1120 broiler chicks at 14 days old, distributed in randomized blocks in a 10x2 factorial arrangement with nine full-fat soybeans (30% included) plus a control diet (70%) without or with the addition of protease, totaling 20 treatments with 8 replicates and 7 birds per cage. In the second experiment, 1120 broiler chickens from 24 to 28 days of age were distributed in randomized blocks in a 10x2 factor arrangement, with nine full-fat soybeans (40% included) + a protein free diet (60%), without or with the addition of protease, totaling 20 treatments with 8 replicates and 7 birds per cage. Ileal digesta collection was used to determine the true digestibility coefficients and the digestible amino acid content of full-fat soybean. The average values of nitrogen-corrected apparent metabolizable energy (AMEn) and their respective metabolization coefficients (CAMEn) were 3207 kcal/kg and 62.57%, respectively. The average values of digestibility coefficients of crude protein and essential and nonessential amino acids were 86.79, 87.90 and 84.34%, respectively. The inclusion of protease improved (P<0.05) all evaluated parameters. Therefore, its use is recommended in diets containing full-fat soybeans for broiler chickens

Chemical composition and metabolizable energy values of feedstuffs for broiler chickens

The objective of this study was to estimate the values of apparent metabolizable energy and apparent metabolizable energy corrected for nitrogen balance and determine the chemical composition of the following feedstuffs: babassu meal, sunflower meal, corn gluten meal, babassu starch flour, meat and bones meal, beans, millet, cookies residue, pasta residue and bread-making residue. The traditional method of excreta collection was used with broilers in the period of 14 to 24 days of age, which were distributed in a completely randomized design with eleven treatments and six replicates of six birds each. Each feedstuff replaced the reference diet at levels of 30 or 40% depending on the type of feedstuff. Chicks were housed in cages fitted with trays to collect the excreta. The apparent metabolizable energy corrected for nitrogen balance (kcal/kg) on the natural matter of feedstuffs were: babassu meal, 1,116; sunflower meal, 1,607; corn gluten meal, 3,826; babassu flour starch, 1,731; meat and bone flour, 2,524; common beans, 693; millet, 3,046; cookies residue, 3,351; pasta residue, 3,543 and bread-making residue, 3,494

Digestible lysine levels in diets for laying Japanese quails

The objective of this study was to estimate the digestible lysine requirement of Japanese quails in the egg-laying phase. A total of 336 female Japanese quails (Coturnix coturnix japonica) of average initial age of 207 days were distributed in a completely randomized experimental design, composed of 6 treatments (lysine levels) with 7 replicates and 8 birds per experimental unit, with duration of 84 days. Experimental diets were formulated from a basal diet, with corn and soybean meal, with 2.800 kcal ME/kg and 203.70 g/kg crude protein, showing levels of 9.50; 10.00; 10.50; 11.00; 11.50; and 12.00 g/kg digestible lysine; diets remained isoprotein and isocaloric. The following variables were studied: feed intake (FI); lysine intake (LI); egg production per bird per day (EPBD); egg production per bird housed (EPBH); production of marketable eggs (PME); egg weight (EW); egg mass (EM); utilization efficiency of lysine for egg mass production (UELEM); feed conversion per mass (FCEM); feed conversion per dozen eggs (FCDZ); bird availability (BA); percentages of yolk (Y), albumen (A) and shell (S); specific egg weight (SW); nitrogen ingested (NI); nitrogen excreted (NE); and nitrogen balance (NB). Significant effect was only observed for LI, EW, EM, UELEM, FCEM, Y, A and SW. The digestible lysine level estimated in diets for laying Japanese quails is 11.20 g digestible lysine/kg diet, corresponding to an average daily intake of 272.23 mg lysine